CBN: Economy Recorded $42.7bn Forex Inflow in First Quarter

The aggregate foreign exchange (forex) inflow into the Nigerian economy in the first quarter (Q1) 2020 was $42.71 billion, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said.
CBN, in its economic report for Q1 2020 obtained on its website yesterday, said the amount of forex inflow recorded in the period under review indicated an increase of one per cent and 13.8 per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.

The development was attributed to an 11.2 per cent increase in inflow through the bank.
A breakdown of the sum showed that oil sector receipts, at $3.36 billion or 7.9 per cent of the total, declined by 7.6 per cent and 21.1 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.

However, it showed that non-oil public sector inflow, at $11.65 billion or 27.3 per cent of total in the review period, rose by 18.1 per cent above the level in fourth quarter of 2019, but was a decline of 17.6 per cent below the level in the corresponding period of 2019.
Also, autonomous inflow, at $27.71 billion in first quarter of 2020, declined by 3.8 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding quarter.

But autonomous inflow rose by 44.7 per cent above the level in the corresponding period of 2019, while inflow from autonomous sources accounted for 64.9 per cent of the total, according to the report.
The data showed that aggregate forex inflow into the CBN within the period under review, amounted to $15.01 billion, showing an increase of 11.2 per cent above the level in the fourth quarter of 2019, but a decrease of 18.4 per cent below the level in the corresponding period of 2019.

“The development, relative to the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the rise in non-oil receipts, driven by proceeds from Treasury Single Account (TSA) and third party receipts. Aggregate outflow from the CBN was $17.62 billion, indicating an increase of 9.4 per cent and 8.1 per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.

“The rise in outflow, relative to the level in the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the increase in interbank utilisation, external debt service, national priority projects, foreign exchange special payment, bank and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) charges/Fees and funds returned to remitta.

“Overall, foreign exchange flows through the bank, in the review period, resulted in a net outflow of $2.61 billion, compared with the net outflow of $2.60 billion in the preceding quarter, but was a net inflow of $2.08 billion in the corresponding period of 2019,” it stated.

Also, the quarterly report indicated that at N2.527 trillion, federally-collected revenue, in the first quarter of 2020, was lower than the quarterly budget estimate of N3.947 trillion by 36 per cent. It also fell below the receipt in the preceding quarter by 4.8 per cent.

The decline in federally-collected revenue (gross), relative to the quarterly budget estimate, was attributed to shortfalls in receipt from both oil and non-oil revenue components during the review period.
Gross oil receipt, at N1.523 trillion or 60.3 per cent of the total revenue, was below the quarterly budget estimate and the receipt in the preceding quarter by 31.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively, according to the report.

The decline in oil revenue, relative to the quarterly budget estimate, was due to shortfall in receipt from petroleum profit tax (PPT) and royalties, while non-oil revenue (gross), at N1.004 trillion or 39.7 per cent of total revenue, fell below the quarterly budget estimate of N1.733 trillion by 42.1 per cent.

“It also fell below the level in the preceding quarter by 8.0 per cent. The lower non-oil revenue, relative to the quarterly budget estimate, was due to the decline in receipt from VAT and corporate tax.

“Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, averaged 1.84 mbd or 167.44 mb in the review quarter. This represented a decrease of 1.1 per cent, compared with the 1.85 mbd or 170.20 mbd produced in the preceding quarter. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.39 mbd, representing a decrease of 0.7 per cent, compared with the 1.40 mbd recorded in the preceding quarter.

“The estimated decrease in production was attributed to the aftermath of the December 2019 OPEC meeting, where members and their allies pledged a further production cut by 500,000 bpd begining in January 2020 to stabilise the global crude market.

“The allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the Bonny Light (37° API), was US$52.51/barrel in the first quarter of 2020, representing decrease of 20.1 per cent and 18.9 per cent below the US$65.71/barrel and US$64.75/barrel recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively,” it added.

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