Europe led a record international rise in defence spending last year, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
European expenses rose in real terms by 17 percent to $693m, spearheading a global rise of 9.4 percent to $2.7 trillion, marking the highest level of defence spending since the fall of communism in Europe.
Russia’s war in Ukraine was the principal driver of the new trend, SIPRI said on Monday.
“The rapid spending increases among European NATO members were driven mainly by the ongoing Russian threat and concerns about possible US disengagement within the alliance,” said Jade Guiberteau Ricard, a researcher with SIPRI.
The protagonists in that war still bore the brunt of its expense.
Russia saw the biggest annual rise of any single country at 38 percent, as it suffered devastating material losses in its war in Ukraine. It spent $149bn, more than 7 percent of its economic output.
Ukraine spent its entire tax income of $64.7bn on its defence, and was the country devoting the biggest proportion of its economy – 34 percent – to the military.
But apparent US reluctance to continue to fund Ukraine’s defence means more of the burden may fall on Europe.
That might not be as onerous as it sounds. The size of the European Union economy meant that it needed to spend only 0.12 percent more of its gross domestic product (GDP) to replace US military support for Ukraine, the think tank Bruegel estimated last February.
‘We will see further increases’
Most of Europe’s defence spending increase, experts told Al Jazeera, addressed the need to rebuild defunct European militaries.
“The increase was expected, though it was still somewhat shocking to see it unfold,” retired US colonel Seth Krummrich said, as it reflected the end of US supremacy on the global stage.
Krummrich, who is now vice president of Global Guardian, a security consultant, believed this was the start of a new trend.
“I do believe we will see further increases in the years ahead. Europe recognises the need to stand on its own and not rely as heavily on the United States,” he said. “That’s not to say the US will not support Europe, but the ‘guaranteed certainty’ of US support is no longer felt.”
The EU last month relaxed deficit rules, allowing national budgets to spend an additional 650 billion euros ($740bn) on defence off the books.
Greece became the first member to announce a multiyear rearmament under the new rules on April 3.
Within Europe, Germany rose most steeply of all (by 28 percent), as an extraordinary 100-billion-euro ($113.5bn) fund announced in 2022 finally swung into action. However, every EU member state except Malta raised its defence budget, reflecting an increasingly widespread Russian threat perception.
The relaxed EU deficit rules, known as Rearm Europe, along with a 150-billion-euro ($170bn) fund to boost EU defence products and a German parliament decision last month to devote up to 1 trillion euros ($1.14 trillion) to infrastructure and defence all advocated in favour of what Krummrich predicted.
Aljazeera
