Inflationary pressure has reduced further as improved macroeconomic stability and gains in the foreign exchange and petroleum sector continue to support reduction in average costs of goods and services.
Economic intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed yesterday by The Nation indicated that headline inflation dropped for the third consecutive month in June 2025.
Ahead of tomorrow’s official release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), analysts were unanimous that stability in the foreign exchange (forex) market, reduction in price of premium motor spirit, popularly known as petrol and other monetary and fiscal policies sustained disinflationary trend.
Independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that headline inflation dropped by some 60 basis points to around average of 22.30 per cent for June 2025, from 22.97 per cent in May 2025, its third consecutive decline.
Headline inflation rate had improved by 52 basis points to 23.71 per cent in April 2025 on the back of reduced food inflation. Composite inflation had for the first time after the January 2025 rebasing, risen by 105 basis points to 24.23 per cent in March 2025 as against 23.18 per cent recorded in February 2025.
The NBS had in January updated the weight and price reference periods in calculation of the CPI to make the inflationary gauge more reflective of changes in consumption patterns and the economy generally. The rebasing not only brought the base year closer to the current period, from 2009 to 2024, it also introduced some critical methodology changes to improve the computation processes.
After the rebasing, inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in the pre-rebased period of December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025.
Bismarck Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) said inflation is expected to ease to 22.65 per cent in June, from 22.97 per cent.
FDC attributed the reduction to a combination of factors, including a N100 reduction in PMS price, relative stability in the naira exchange rate, and a decline in money supply growth.
FDC however expected food inflation to rise by 0.42 per cent to 21.56 per cent from 21.14 per cent. Core inflation is projected to decline by 1.34 per cent to 20.94 per cent from 22.28 per cent.
“The inflation numbers could have been worse if not for the relative stability of the exchange rate,” FDC noted.
The Nation
