The trade sector contributed N40.71tn to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product in the first six months of 2025, signalling its growing weight in the economy as non-oil exports, gas sales, and refinery activity expanded across the period.
Assessments by analysts and organised private sector groups, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH, indicated that the trade sector’s gains in H1 2025 are a result of the prevailing economic policies, which have boosted trade between Nigeria and the rest of the world.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that trade added N14.59tn to GDP in Q1 2025 and rose sharply to N26.12tn in Q2 2025, representing a 78.96 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. The sector’s contribution also grew by 29.11 per cent over the N31.53tn recorded in the first half of 2024.
Trade data from the NBS also showed that Nigeria recorded total exports of N43.35tn and total imports of N30.71tn in H1 2025, indicating a surplus of N12.64tn.
President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, said that the figures align with the surge in export-related activities and rising natural gas output. He said, “The trade performance in the GDP reflects what we are saying about the increase in non-oil exports.”
According to the NBS, non-oil exports climbed from N1.43tn in 2020 to N6.21tn in the first six months of 2025. The LCCI president also pointed to reinvigorated petroleum industry activity as a trade-enabling factor, adding, “We are producing more Liquefied Natural Gas and Compressed Natural Gas, we are selling them, so our trade volumes are going up.”
Idahosa explained that the supply side is expanding across multiple layers of the petroleum value chain, stating, “We are doing larger volumes of refined products, of crude oil… The Nigerian oil companies that acquired the International Oil Companies are producing a lot more gas to meet domestic demand. That is improving trade in gas, whether it is LNG or CNG or even Liquefied Petroleum Gas.”
He added that the trend is unsurprising as the economy now records “a very significant increase in volumes along those (energy goods) lines.” The challenge with the trade sector is that a corresponding decline in manufacturing growth trails it.
Idahosa emphasised that the rise in trade does not yet translate into corresponding gains in manufacturing. “We are not seeing significant increases in manufacturing yet,” he said, citing weak purchasing power, high energy costs, and rising stocks of unsold goods. He added, “Manufacturing will be the last to join the growth train because the reduction in inflation will gradually increase buying power.”
A notable trend in the trade sector’s growth is the real GDP growth rate, which decreased from 1.78 per cent in Q1 to 1.29 per cent in Q2. Analysts explained that this 0.4 percentage point drop is not a cause for alarm.
Economist and former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof Segun Ajibola, said the dip in trade’s real growth rate in Q2 should be viewed in the context of seasonal fluctuations. He said the first quarter typically opens with sluggish activity as firms resume operations and government spending remains slow.
Ajibola noted, “By the second quarter, businesses generally begin to peak… So, relatively speaking, the push in these other sectors was stronger compared with trade. That’s why you see the contribution by trade slumped in relative terms.”
He warned that the long-term implications depend on which segment of trade is expanding. “I would be much happier if it were the export trade that is growing… But if trade is growing on account of imports, our reliance on the rest of the world continues to increase, which is not good for the domestic economy,” he said.
Balancing trade and real sector growth, especially manufacturing, is a cornerstone of the OPS’s advocacy. Whereas the manufacturing sector’s real GDP grew 1.60 per cent (year-on-year), higher than the same quarter of 2024, the NBS reported that “the real contribution to GDP in Q2 2025 was 7.81 per cent, lower than the 8.01 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024 and lower than the 9.62 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.”
President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, agreed with LCCI president Idahosa that the latest numbers indicate that trade is expanding because manufacturing is shrinking.
He said, “Trade is growing because the real sector is slowing down. When manufacturers slow down or close, the demand for their products is replaced by imports. When you bring in imported products, it increases trade.”
Egbesola warned that the trend is harmful for jobs and domestic industry, stressing, “It is another way for us to continue to export our jobs and import poverty. We cannot sustain the economy on trade… Every industrialisation depends solely on the manufacturing sector.”
He also linked the decline in the sector’s real GDP growth to the effects of local refining. “Before now, an enormous amount was being spent on trade, bringing in refined petroleum… For now, a good percentage of that crude oil is being used by the local manufacturer, that is Dangote Refinery,” the ASBON chief said. “Instead of selling out the refined products, local consumers are making good use of them. This is reflected in the trade numbers.”
Stakeholders called for stronger industrial policy, greater support for light manufacturing, and sustained promotion of export-oriented production to ensure that the rising trade numbers translate into broader economic gains.
Punch
